2021 will be a year of ice and fire for many companies in the ceramics and sanitary ware industry. Affected by the macro-control of real estate and dual-carbon and dual-control policies, most people in the industry have mixed feelings about the past 2021. Chen, he cannot understand the future development situation of the industry clearly.
What changes has the ceramic industry experienced in the past 2021? How will the industry develop next in 2022? At the end of the year, the China Building Ceramics and Sanitary Ware Industry Media Center and China Building Materials News jointly conducted an exclusive interview with Miao Bin, President of the China Building and Sanitary Ceramics Association, to interpret the industry's operation in 2021 and its development direction in 2022.
1. The development of the industry in 2021 will be stable with progress and stability with worries
2021 is the first year after my country has fully entered a moderately prosperous society, and is also the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". According to the "14th Five-Year Plan Development Guidance for the Architectural Ceramics and Sanitary Ware Industry" issued by the China Building Ceramics and Sanitary Ceramics Association An overall assessment of industry development during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period was made. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the industry is changing its development model, activating endogenous driving forces, promoting structural adjustment, making up for development shortcomings, promoting scientific and technological innovation and technological progress, accelerating the pace of energy conservation, emission reduction and green development, accelerating going global, and enhancing international competitiveness, etc. Great progress has been made in this regard. The industry has undergone profound changes in terms of production area layout, technical equipment level, enterprise scale structure, product structure, sales channels, etc. However, along with the development of the industry, problems such as insufficient production capacity after elimination, R&D and innovation capabilities need to be improved, and weak ability to respond to market changes have been exposed. The judgment of the just-convened Central Economic Work Conference on the current situation is very consistent with the actual situation faced by the industry.
First, demand shrinks. The demand for building ceramic products reached its peak during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. The development of the ceramic and sanitary ware industry is closely related to real estate. Over the years, more than 90% of the ceramic tile products produced nationwide have been used in the domestic market. Starting from 2018, the national demand for ceramic tiles has rapidly entered a downward channel, falling to less than 9 billion square meters. , hovering around 8 billion square meters in recent years. From the ceramic tile application market, it can be clearly seen that the national real estate market demand is shrinking. National sanitary ware production has basically remained stable, and strong demand in foreign markets has partially made up for the decline in domestic demand.
Second, supply shock. The supply shock involves many fields, not just the construction, ceramics and sanitary ware industry. Of course, our industry is feeling it very strongly, and the first one to bear the brunt of this is rising energy prices. In the past, when the price of natural gas was low, it was around 2 yuan, and when it was high, it reached more than 7 yuan in some areas! The price of coal has increased from 700 to 800 yuan per ton when it was low, to more than 3,000 yuan per ton when it was the highest. Of course, there are power cuts and so on. The impact of supply shocks on the industry is veryHuge, resulting in a decline in profits or even losses for many companies.
Third, the forecast weakens, which is the most worrying issue for the industry. The first two problems have already occurred, and the third one affects everyone's confidence in next year and future development. Confidence is more important than gold. In view of the weakening forecast, many entrepreneurs are worried about the development prospects and do not know what to do. But they are very clear that the expected decline means that the market demand will shrink in the future and the share of the pie will decrease.
The recent "explosion" of fund redemptions by "Evergrande" and some real estate companies has seriously hurt the industry. Many companies and dealers have been affected, and the losses affected by our industry may exceed tens of billions. Some people fell into panic and worry. Will this be the "bloody opening theme"?
For most companies, 2021 is an unstable year. The market situation is changing rapidly. They have experienced the joy and excitement of being overwhelmed by the influx of orders, but they have also experienced sluggish sales and worries about the uncertainty of the future. Before the end of the year, most construction and ceramics companies have stopped production one after another, reflecting the confusion and wait-and-see mood of many companies about the coming year.
From a time perspective, the industry operation situation in 2021 will be hot at first and then cold at the end. The industry's performance in the first half of the year was quite good due to three factors. The first factor is that the domestic epidemic situation is clear in the first half of the year, which is superimposed on the traditional peak season of demand; second, 2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". Generally, according to the development laws of China's political and economic development, each five-year plan The economy will have a small development climax in the first year; thirdly, the global economy is recovering, foreign demand is particularly active, and many foreign trade companies are full of orders; of course, foreign trade companies also have difficulties, with rising raw material prices, increased transportation costs, and sharp profit margins Shrinkage etc.
After the Spring Festival this year, market demand across the country was strong, and the off-season came relatively quickly. Market sales were obviously weak in May and June. After entering the third quarter, especially affected by the Evergrande incident, market sales gradually entered a "cooling period" and entered the Sales became even more sluggish after the fourth quarter, and companies in various production areas began to stop kilns and production.
Despite the ups and downs of the market situation, leading companies have generally performed well in responding to market shocks. They are still seeking to expand production capacity and expand market share. Their competitiveness is constantly improving, which shows that large companies have strong capabilities in technology, capital, and risk resistance. Advantages in terms of abilities and so on.
This year, sanitary ware companies are not as affected by market changes as ceramic tile companies. The main reason is that the overall demand market for sanitary ware continues to remain stable, and even has a slight increase. In particular, the international market has strong demand for Chinese sanitary ware products. As the world economy recovers from the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,Gradually recovering, the foreign trade situation of Chinese sanitary ware companies in 2021 is very good.
Overall, the overall operating situation of the entire industry in 2021 is stable with progress, but with worries.
2. How will the company develop in 2022? Keep your wallet tight, speed up the pace of innovation, and find your own position
Despite various difficulties, China has the world's largest demand market and its economy is highly resilient. In the context of China's sustained economic development, the industry's development prospects are still promising, but certainly not all companies can survive. In the next few years, the competitive environment of survival of the fittest and survival of the fittest may become even more "cruel."
For the work of the association, it is to provide better services, go deep into enterprises and production areas to understand the development trends of the industry, conscientiously study and understand government policies and guidelines, guide enterprises to make scientific decisions, and lead the healthy development of the industry.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, nearly a quarter of the companies in the construction and ceramics industry withdrew, and the proportion may be even higher during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Especially in the context of dual carbon, it will accelerate the reshuffle of the industry. It also means that the concentration of the industry will increase rapidly, and more large companies with tens of billions will appear in the industry.
The future is bright, but the road is tortuous. Everyone seems to know this truth. What will happen to the market next year? How do you get through difficult times? It’s a question mark in many people’s minds and the answer they want to know.
First, keeping your wallet secure and ensuring the safety of corporate cash flow may be more important than anything else at the moment. "Stability takes top priority" is the general tone of the country's economic work next year. In the context of many uncertainties in the development environment, enterprises should operate steadily and develop steadily, especially to avoid blind impulse and reduce unnecessary losses.
Second, we must increase innovation, whether it is technological innovation, product innovation, or model innovation. The association has been encouraging and advocating scientific and technological innovation for many years. Since 2015, it has organized the application and review of scientific and technological innovation awards in the industry every year, guiding enterprises to speed up the pace of innovation, increase innovation intensity, and promote high-quality development of the industry.
The ceramic sanitary ware industry belongs to the field of large home furnishings. Extending product lines and extending the industrial chain to develop into "big home furnishings" is an important way for enterprises to become bigger and stronger. In the past, consumers were accustomed to purchasing and using a single product. The current and future development trend is to treat the entire space as one product. If companies cannot adapt to this change, they will be passive in better meeting the needs of future consumers. Now, everyone has noticed that leading companies are extending the concept of "big home" in different ways. Some are trying to enter the whole, self-contained, and prefabricated style, and some are starting to make non-burning materials. This requires technological innovationNew, product innovation, business model innovation. Without innovation, an enterprise would have no soul, no motivation for development, and lose its source of life.
Third, improve the level of digital and intelligent production as much as possible. As a traditional industry, ceramic sanitary ware companies face recruitment difficulties and a significant increase in labor costs, which are increasingly restricting the development of the industry. Although during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the per capita labor productivity of ceramic tile companies increased by 50%, sanitary ware manufacturers The per capita labor productivity of ceramic enterprises has increased by 30%, but it is still difficult to keep up with the pace of national economic development and is far from meeting employees' needs for an improved working environment. According to the "14th Five-Year Plan", the per capita labor productivity of all employees in ceramic construction (including slate) enterprises must exceed 1.2 million yuan. The per capita labor productivity of all sanitary ceramics enterprises exceeds 600,000 yuan, which will increase by another 50% on the basis of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan".
Machine generation is the only way for the development of the construction ceramics and sanitary ware industries. A few years ago, a ceramic tile production line required 200 to 300 workers, but now the most advanced domestic ceramic tile production line requires only 50 people; the latest domestic sanitary ceramic production line requires more than 50% less labor than in the past; the working conditions of employees have been greatly improved, and labor Productivity has been greatly improved, but of course the investment cost of the new production line has also been much higher. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the industry has made great progress in digitalization and intelligence, further narrowing the gap with foreign advanced levels.
Over the years, the development of the industry has made a lot of progress, but we are also clearly aware that compared with advanced countries, we still have a large gap. The most prominent manifestation is in innovation capabilities, especially in the original creation of major key technologies. and basic research. On the other hand, there is a gap in design. Ceramic bathroom products are not only functional products, but also have strong decorative attributes, and the decorative attributes give the products higher added value. In the field of product decoration design, European and American design concepts and styles dominate, and we are more learning and following them.
A very big problem faced by many companies is that the added value of their products is not high, their brand power is not enough, and their product quality and workmanship details lag behind others. In many aspects, details determine success or failure. We must promote the spirit of craftsmanship, be down-to-earth, and work hard to make good products, provide excellent services, and polish the brand. This cannot be done overnight. Nowadays, the state encourages "specialization, specialization and innovation" and advocates cultivating individual champions in the industry. It is even more necessary to work hard and do a good job in the details.
2022 is an important year for our country to embark on a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country and marching towards the second centenary goal. In the new year, we will continue to use technological innovation and brand Construction as the driving force, high-quality development as the focus, "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" as the direction, industrial structure adjustment, industrial chain extension and "Internet +" application and promotion as the approach, focusing on value-added services, promoting energy conservation and reduction Emissions and comprehensive utilization will promote the industry's upgrading to a green, circular, low-carbon, innovation-driven, high-quality and efficient development. The China Building and Sanitary Ceramics Association will continue to play a leading, coordinating and service role to empower enterprises and make the industry sustainable. Protect scientific development
